Republicans have clinched the White House and Congress, though with a House majority so slim that it might hamper parts of President-Elect Donald Trump’s agenda.
Democratic losses in the House would have been much greater had these down-ballot candidates not often outpaced Vice President Kamala Harris, some holding their own in Trump districts.
Republicans will control the chamber with at least 218 seats — several more seats remain too close to call. By dint of the closely contested seats and the Trump administration plucking out some House members to serve in his cabinet, Republicans may be facing a historically slim majority. In the Senate, they’ll either have a 53-47 seat majority or a 52-48 one based on the outcome of the Pennsylvania Senate race, which the cable news networks have not yet called.
The last time Republicans won a trifecta, in 2017 when Trump won his first term, Republicans controlled the House by 47 seats. They also had a six-seat Senate majority.
In the second half of President Joe Biden’s administration, Republicans struggled mightily with small House margins, much more so than Democrats, who were working with a similar number of seats in his first two years but managed to pass wide swaths of legislation.
When Republicans flipped the House in 2022 with a margin of nine seats, the dysfunction began immediately, with Kevin McCarthy infamously requiring 15 rounds of voting to secure the speakership. By the fall he was ousted amid a far-right mutiny. It took 22 days for the conference to settle on Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA), the current speaker.
The source of the consternation was often the party’s right flank, which has become accustomed to obstruction and didn’t shy away from internecine squabbling. This put them at odds with members in vulnerable districts, particularly the New York Republicans from Biden-voting districts, most of whom were ousted this election.
Still, the comparison isn’t a perfect one. In 2017, when Republicans faced the incentive of actually legislating and supporting Trump’s administration, the party was less thoroughly infected with MAGA devotion. In the years since, many Trump resisters have been primaried or self-selected out of the party. For example, only two of the House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump remain in Congress; both faced tough reelection fights this year, but survived.
Freedom caucus-type Republicans may be less inclined to constantly needle leadership and gum up the chamber now that they’ll be serving under a President Trump, and not a President Biden.
The degree to which House Republicans will be called on to unify depends on whether Senate Republicans blow up the filibuster.
Outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has for years defended the filibuster, knowing, if not saying, that it serves Republican interests. They can pass tax cuts and nominate judges with it in place in its current form, and it blocks Democrats, who often have more ambitious legislative agendas, from passing much of what they want to do. It can also bail Republicans out from having to actually pass and stand by some of their more unpopular campaign promises, historically ranging from banning abortion nationwide to privatizing Social Security.
There will be a new era of Senate leadership this time, likely McConnell lieutenants Sens. John Thune (R-SD) or John Cornyn (R-TX). Both have recently committed to keeping the filibuster in place, though there will be some amount of pressure from right-wing activists hoping to take advantage of the trifecta, which, historically speaking, tends to be fleeting.
If they do keep the filibuster in place, Trump may try to do much of his agenda unilaterally — imposing huge tariffs on foreign goods, deporting unprecedented numbers of immigrants, pulling the United States out of NATO, unwinding regulations, perhaps forcing and negotiating Ukraine’s surrender to Russia.
Senate Republicans will still likely pass tax cuts for the rich through the budget reconciliation process (which only requires a simple majority), depending upon House support. Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Tom Cotton (R-AR) have also discussed using the budgetary process to weaken or roll back the Affordable Care Act and pass immigration-related legislation, though some Republicans reportedly fret that off-topic legislation will get flagged by the Senate parliamentarian and derail the tax cuts.
Moderate Republicans, or those in competitive districts and states — think House members like Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), who just barely survived reelection after Republicans tried to strip Omaha of its electoral importance, or Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who’s up in 2026 and just watched Democrats perform exceptionally well in his state downballot — will be the players to watch in the new world order.
