I’ve made this point a few times in passing in other posts. But as events develop I wanted to explain it succinctly and with emphasis. Democrats are out of power and have very fewer actual levers to impact what’s happening. Yelling is important. Driving opposition in what is ultimately a battle for public opinion is important. Contesting everything through the courts is important. But there is only one hard lever of power currently available: that’s the help the White House needs from Democrats on a budget and the debt ceiling. This morning explainer from Punchbowl makes clear why that help is essential. It’s not just helpful. It’s essential. The GOP majorities are simply too small, especially in the House. The GOP is simply too fractious.
This is the one area where it isn’t a matter of yelling as loud as you can when no one actually has to listen or working through a decidedly hostile judiciary. Trump needs this. It’s not a matter of working out a deal with Mike Johnson. Trump needs this help and there’s only one place to get it. It’s a not a discussion with John Thune or Mike Johnson. Only with Trump.
I had been somewhat pessimistic about what I was seeing from Congressional Democrats on this front. But starting yesterday they began to change their tune and started saying explicitly that the budget and debt ceiling were a key lever for them in handling the situation. That’s real progress. But I think the terms need to be sharpened a lot. The standard should be no help on the budget or the debt ceiling until the law breaking stops. Period. End of story. No wilding gangs marauding through the federal government. End the criminal conduct. Period.
That’s it. No nuance.
There are many terrible things Trump and his supporters can do by passing new laws. They can shut down USAID, the Department of Education, FEMA. Whatever. They can do a ton of other horrible things. They can try to take away everyone’s health care to fund tax cuts for his billionaire friends, as they are in fact intending to do. All of that is terrible but legal is they can put together the votes. They are in the majority. Joe Biden passed big legislation with tighter margins. What they are doing now, on the contrary, is not only brazenly illegal but an overt and undeniable violation of the federal constitution. When that stops then Democrats will consider helping on the budget and the debt ceiling. And they can negotiate on particulars. But nothing until the lawbreaking stops.
If you’re concerned about the constitutional crisis I would use every opportunity to convey to lawmakers that a flat no on any assistance until the criminal conduct stops is the only acceptable position. It is the right thing to do, the constitutional thing to do and it is the only path that holds the possibility of meaningfully changing the situation in the short to medium term. It also demonstrates and shows an understanding of how to use power. And that is something the opposition desperately needs. Make them come to you.
